President Trump offered to deescalate the conflict in the Middle East on March 23. In a series of wide-ranging comments, President Trump said that regime change had already been achieved, that negotiations with Tehran were progressing, and that he was pausing his threat to target Iranian energy infr...
Although Value has had a meaningful run, the longer-run Growth trend likely remains intact. However, benchmark Growth indices are increasingly concentrated. Sector-neutral and within-sector implementations may allow investors to retain much of the same Growth/Value exposure while reducing dependence...
The war in the Persian Gulf has achieved a temporary balance thanks to the Cold War-era Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) logic. After Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars natural gas field, Tehran retaliated across the region against energy infrastructure. Specifically, Iran’s attack against Qatar’s Ra...
WTI is relatively calm amid the current conflict in the Middle East. Markets are too complacent on US crude relative to other international benchmarks....
Our GeoMacro strategists argue that prevailing market narratives around the Gulf conflict rest on three flawed assumptions. First, that the UAE’s role as a financial hub is at risk; second, that Iran can sustain a closure of the Strait of Hormuz; and third, that the conflict is primarily about press...
European sentiment plunged in March, reflecting vulnerability to higher energy prices. The ZEW expectations index fell sharply to -8.5 from 39.4 at the Euro Area level and to -0.5 from 58.3 in Germany. German current conditions were better than estimates but remain deeply pessimistic at -62.9. The d...
Higher oil prices threaten the global economy, warranting an underweight stance on equities. Over the long haul, industrial metals will fare better than crude....
Forced to choose between growth and inflation, the Fed will save growth and the stock market rather than the 2 percent inflation target and the bond market....
The Fed will not cut rates again until core inflation trends lower. This remains likely as the tariff impact on goods inflation wanes, but the recent energy price shock could delay any meaningful downtrend....
